Republicans outperforming Democrats on kitchen table issues like the economy and inflation are in position to regain control of the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a poll released Sunday that also shows President Biden’s job approval ratings are still underwater.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll puts Biden’s disapproval rating at 53%, with 43% favorable, which is nearly identical to an NBC News survey that has him with a 53% disapproval, 44% approval rating.

The president’s dire job approval numbers are putting his party at a disadvantage in the Nov. 8 elections, according to NBC’s Republican pollster.

“President Biden and the Democrats are in for a miserable election,” ​said ​Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted ​the NBC News survey.

Voters in Las Vegas wait to cast their ballots on Friday.
Voters in Las Vegas wait to cast their ballots on Friday.
The Washington Post via Getty Im

“The Democrats have to run way ahead of the president to win a statewide race,” he said. “I would expect to see a large number of losses in the House and possibly a switch in control of the Senate.”

Voters cast their ballots in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday.
Voters cast their ballots in Anchorage, Alaska, on Saturday.
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Election workers Friday at a polling station in Central City, Colorado.
Election workers Friday at a polling station in Central City, Colorado.
The Washington Post via Getty Im

According to the Washington Post/ABC News poll, registered voters are statistically deadlocked on whether they will vote for the Republican candidate (49%) or the Democratic ​candidate ​(48%) in their district.

More than 90% of Republicans and Democrats say they will vote for their party's candidate in Tuesday's midterm elections, but independents favor Republicans 53% to 45%.
More than 90% of Republicans and Democrats say they will vote for their party’s candidate in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but independents favor Republicans 53% to 45%.
Washington Post

But the report ​pointed out that when looking at historical trends, Democrats need to be much farther ahead in that measure if they are going to hold off a Republican surge. 

The GOP only needs to win a net of five seats to regain a majority in the House. 

Going into the midterm elections, President Biden's job approval ratings are still under water with 53% of voters saying their disapprove of his job performance.
Going into the midterm elections, President Biden’s job approval ratings are still under water with 53% of voters saying their disapprove of his job performance.
Washington Post

The report said that more Democratic seats in the midterms are considered toss-ups, and noted that four years ago when they wrested control of the House during the Trump administration they held a 7-point advantage among voters. 

The poll cautioned that it looked at the elections for the House and not for the Senate, which is evenly divided at 50-50. ​

Voters trust Republicans to handle their top concerns going into the midterm elections.
Voters trust Republicans to handle their top concerns going into the midterm elections.
Washington Post

Ninety-three percent of Democrats and Republicans say they will vote for their candidates in House races, but independents by a 53% to 43% margin favor Republicans, the poll found.

 In 2018, independents said they would vote for Democrats by 54% to 42%.

But when it comes to turnout, 80% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents say they have either already or are “absolutely” going to vote Tuesday, compared to 74% of Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents.

The NBC News poll showed, however, that Democrats have closed the enthusiasm gap over the past month – erasing the Republicans’ 9 percentage point advantage. 

In the latest poll, 73% of Republicans and Democrats expressed their interest in voting by registering either a “9” or a “10” on a 10-point scale. 

In October, Republicans were ahead 78% to 68%.

The NBC News poll also showed that 48% of likely voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 47% prefer Republicans to be in the majority – a reverse of what October’s poll found – but still statistically even.

Asked in the Washington Post poll which issues will influence their vote, 26% chose the economy, 22% say abortion, and 21% pick inflation and threats to democracy.

They also trust Republicans more to handle crime (54% to 34%), the economy (52% to 38%), inflation (50% to 38%), and immigration (46% to 44%.

Voters prefer Democrats on the climate change (51% to 32%), abortion (50% to 37%), threats to democracy (47% tp 43%) and education and schools (47% to 44%).

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between Nov. 3-5. It has a plus/minus 3.1 percentage points margin of error.

The Washington Post poll surveyed 1,005 adults between Oct. 30-Nov. 2. It has a plus/minus 4.5 percentage points margin of error.



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