The majority of Americans believe political divisions have worsened since the beginning of 2021, a new poll finds — and two out of five think a civil war is likely to break out within the next decade. 

About two-thirds — 66% — say Americans have become more split politically since the start of 2021 and they are largely pessimistic about the future of the United States, with 63% saying they expect the separations to increase and 62% predicting political violence will worsen over the next few years, the YouGovAmerica poll shows.

Only 8% say the country is less divided, the poll released Friday shows.

Asked about the likelihood that the country will be riven by a second civil war in the next 10 years, 14% believe it is “very likely,” 29% say it is “somewhat likely,” while 24% opt for “not very likely” and 11% say “not likely at all.”

Another 22% say they aren’t sure. 

The poll found 79% of Republicans believe the political divisions have worsened since President Biden took office in January 2021, compared to 59% of Democrats and 65% of independents. 

A majority of Americans expect political separations to increase and political violence to worsen.

14% of Americans polled believe it is “very likely” that the US will see a second civil war in the next decade.

Only 8% of those surveyed say the country is less politically divided.

And 72% of Republicans also say the political divisions will only deteriorate further in the next few years, a sentiment that 58% of Democrats and independents agree with. 

With the political divisions festering, 54% of respondents who identify as “strong” Republicans believe it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that the US will be engaged in a civil war in 10 years, compared to the 40% of “strong” Democrats who believe that. 

January 2021 saw two momentous events — the inauguration of Biden on Jan. 20 and the attack on the Capitol by a mob of President Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6. 

Donald Trump.
Seventy-two percent of Republicans say the political divisions will only deteriorate further in the next few years.
Robert Miller
Joe Biden.
President Biden pledged to unify the country when he took office.
Yuri Gripas/Pool/CNP via ZUMA Press Wire

Biden entered the White House after pledging to unify the country during his presidential campaign.

He hit those themes in his inaugural address.

“We can join forces, stop the shouting and lower the temperature. For without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury. No progress, only exhausting outrage. No nation, only a state of chaos. This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge, and unity is the path forward,” Biden said.

According to the poll, the political temperature has just gotten higher since then.

Juxtapose ​Biden’s remarks ​​on Jan. 20 ​with his comments last week at a rally in Maryland when he talked to Democratic supporters about MAGA Republicans.

“We’re seeing now either the beginning or the death knell of an extreme MAGA agenda,” Biden told the gathering in Rockville. “It’s not just Trump … It’s almost semi-fascism.”

And Trump, who has been criticizing the FBI for conducting a raid earlier this month at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida for classified documents he kept after leaving the White House, linked to a video of Sen. Lindsey Graham warning of “riots in the streets” if the former president is arrested. ​

The South Carolina Republican condemned the raid during an appearance Sunday night on Fox News as another instance of Democrats investigating Trump.​

“And I’ll say this, if there is a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified information after the Clinton debacle … there will be riots in the streets,” Graham ​said.


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